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Sunday, 13 October 2013

Ibrahimovic, Ribery and Eriksen... Watch out England, top Euro trio await in World Cup play-offs if Roy's boys fail to beat Poland.

If England beat Poland, Roy Hodgson can begin thinking about a summer holiday in Brazil.
If they don't, he needs to prepare them for a possible hairy play-off against France - a team the Three Lions haven't beaten since 1997.
The top eight second-placed sides in all the qualifying groups will be split into two pots depending on their world ranking. France, along with the likes of Sweden and Denmark, may be in the bottom half.
Crunch-time:Wayne Rooney needs to be on form so England don't face the likes of France in a play-off
Crunch-time:Wayne Rooney needs to be on form so England don't face the likes of France in a play-off
Scary prospect: France's starting XI against Australia featured many remier League players, as well as Franck Ribery, Paul Pogba and Raphael Varane
Scary prospect: France's starting XI against Australia featured many remier League players, as well as Franck Ribery, Paul Pogba and Raphael Varane

Reverse fixtures against the likes of Franck Ribery, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Christian Eriksen just to qualify for the World Cup are definitely not in Roy's plan.
It makes Tuesday's final qualifier against Poland at Wembley even more important. A promising performance against Montenegro will mean nothing if Tuesday doesn't go England's way.
France are almost certainly going to finish second in Group I behind Spain. Only an unthinkable loss from Xavi and Co at home to Georgia would mean otherwise.
As the play-offs would be decided on rankings, it does mean England would avoid facing the likes of Portugal, Russia, Croatia, Greece and Bosnia-Herzegovina. But France are now ranked 25th in the world which could pose a serious problem.
The system for deciding which countries will finish second and go into the play-offs isn't quite as simple as it sounds, however.
There are nine European region qualifying groups and only eight spaces available.
Rememeber than wonder-goal? Zlatan Ibrahimovic's Sweden stunned England last time they played
Rememeber than wonder-goal? Zlatan Ibrahimovic's Sweden stunned England last time they played

Playmaker: Tottenham's Christian Eriksen would be a threat if England faced Denmark
Playmaker: Tottenham's Christian Eriksen would be a threat if England faced Denmark
The curve ball comes when Group I, which only has five teams, is taken into account. To even everything out, all second placed teams, other than the one in Group I, have points gained against the their bottom side removed.
The scary thought then is that finishing second may not be enough.

Fortunately for England, if they do fail to win their group they have amassed enough points to definitely be in the play-offs.
It does make the calculation just that bit more complicated, however, with the bottom team of some groups still undecided.
Belgium, Italy, Germany, Holland and Switzerland are the five teams who have already qualified, with Spain and Russia all but official.
A real teaser is Group B. Italy have 21 points and comfortably lead the group, but then four teams are in with a chance of finishing second. Bulgaria and Denmark both have 13 points, with Czech Republic and Armenia on 12.
Despair: Could Roy Hodgson come unstuck in a World Cup play-off
Despair: Could Roy Hodgson come unstuck in a World Cup play-off

Malta are bottom with just three points after beating Armenia. As second placed teams will have their games against the bottom side crossed off, Czech Republic cannot make it into play-offs should they finish next behind Italy.
The play-off draw will take place on Monday October 21 with the fixtures to be played on November 15 and 19

Here are all the permutations possible regarding the play-offs.

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