Remember Carson against Croatia? That is why Hodgson HAS to stick with Hart.

Whatever happens this weekend, Joe Hart will be the goalkeeper for the final group games of England’s World Cup qualifying campaign.
Even if his performance in Manchester City’s match with Everton echoes the calamitous display against Bayern Munich, there is no way out for Roy Hodgson now.
As Steve McClaren discovered in 2007, changing a goalkeeper late in the day can prove fatal. McClaren switched the experienced Paul Robinson for 22-year-old third choice Scott Carson in the deciding game of the qualifying group for the 2008 European Championship and lost the lot. His match, his job, it all slipped away as Carson cracked under the pressure of his surprise inclusion.

Fatal error: Carson slips up as England crash out in Euro 2008 qualifying

For McClaren then, read Hodgson now. He will be at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday, and were the play to reveal an England goalkeeper still in a state of shock from his Champions League ordeal, his manager would have no option but to smile grimly in the main stand and hope. As was confessed on Thursday, Hart is No 1 in a field of one. It is too late for revisions now. There have been 1,830 minutes of football played with Hodgson as England manager; Hart has been in goal for 1,605 of them.
This includes every minute of every competitive game — a run dating back to June 27, 2010, when England lost 4-1 to Germany in Bloemfontein with David James between the posts — and five-and-a-half of eight England friendlies.
In contrast, the other goalkeepers selected in Hodgson’s squad on Thursday have 45 minutes of international experience between them. John Ruddy played the second half of a friendly against Italy on August 15, 2012. Fraser Forster is yet to make his international debut. And Hodgson, a pragmatist to say the least, will be only too aware of what happened to the last England manager to gamble with his goalkeeper in a vital game. He was fired the next day.

Food for thought: Hart's loss of form has come at an inopportune time for Hodgson

Hart’s form has been inconsistent for some while but Hodgson plainly believes there is no serious contender to the Manchester City man. He talked Ben Foster — who is currently injured — out of international retirement but has otherwise paid only lip service to rotation in non-competitive matches, and the inexperience of Ruddy and Forster tells its own story.
However Hart performs against Everton — or even Montenegro — Hodgson has no wriggle room. Even if he has concerns about a failure of confidence spreading to the rest of the team, the moment for change has passed.

Final straw: McClaren lost his job in 2007

It was procrastination, followed by belated boldness that cost McClaren dear. In 2007, dropping Robinson was not entirely unpopular with the critics. His staff, including goalkeeping coach Ray Clemence, also backed the change. But it was too late. The time to make a switch was far earlier in the campaign, when Robinson’s errors were costing England in major matches, but there were games against weak opponents remaining. Carson, or a rival, could have settled then.
At the time of the change, however, with England needing a draw against Croatia to qualify for the finals, the stakes were too high.
Terry Venables, McClaren’s assistant, had begun counselling against Robinson’s inclusion a year earlier, after the away defeat by Croatia in 2006. He did not blame Robinson for the missed kick from Gary Neville’s back-pass — that was just rotten luck — but for his positioning for Croatia’s first, headed, goal. No man’s land, Venables called it. He could have caught the ball easily on his line, or he could have come for the cross, but Robinson was in between and the ball looped over his head.
Clemence also regularly expressed doubts about Robinson, particular after an unconvincing display in the match against Russia when he parried the ball out for Roman Pavlyuchenko to score the winner, rather than pushing it wide. But by then the group matches were close to completion.

Dropped: Paul Robinson made several errors in Euro 2008 qualifying

Eventually, Carson — widely agreed to be England’s most impressive goalkeeper in training — made his debut against Austria in a friendly, on the Friday before Croatia’s match at Wembley. By then England were as good as out anyway; it was only when Russia messed up against Israel that the Croatia fixture went live again. And the pressure on Carson, now heading for his first competitive international, increased tenfold.
It proved calamitous. Carson let in the softest of goals after eight minutes, had a horrible first half, and England went out. He never started a game for his country again, and it remains his only competitive involvement. He now plays for Wigan Athletic in the Championship. McClaren was sacked the next morning.
The professional game was unforgiving. Many, including James and Alan Hansen, lined up to condemn the England coach for giving a boy a man’s job.
Yet McClaren’s instincts were not wrong, merely his time scale. His England regime suffered two great handicaps: bad luck through injuries, and procrastination. The former was out of his control, the latter caused his downfall. He dithered on Robinson until it was too late. Hodgson has not dithered on Hart, though. He has merely reached the conclusion that his first choice is in a different class to his reserves.

Cut above: Hodgson will stick with Joe Hart as No 1 for the remaining qualifiers

Rejecting Hart would leave two options. An utter novice, Forster, who is very lightly raced in Scotland playing for Celtic and would be making his international debut in a match that may decide England’s World Cup fate; or Ruddy, a solid citizen for Norwich City, but one whose talent would not have stood out among the ranks of England’s goalkeepers in the decades before the Premier League.
The alternatives are not worth considering. Hodgson has used three other goalkeepers in his 20-match reign. Foster (45 minutes versus the Republic of Ireland last May) is injured; Rob Green (one full game against Norway in May 2012) is in the Championship with Queens Park Rangers; Jack Butland (played the first half against Italy, August 2012) is now trying to rebuild his career on loan at Barnsley.

Inexperienced: Ruddy (left) and Forster (right) have played just 45 minutes of international between them

It is not so much that Hodgson’s cupboard is bare, more that he hasn’t actually got a cupboard. A shoebox could adequately store England’s goalkeeping options going into these matches. A shoebox for someone with very small feet.
So Hodgson’s choice is Hobson’s choice and Hart could not have picked a worse time for a crisis of confidence because it is far too late for drama in England’s penalty area.
As good as Forster’s performance was for Celtic against Barcelona this week, he would be a battlefield promotion in the manner of Carson in 2007: a giant gamble that could decide whether England participate in the Brazilian World Cup. And the one thing Hodgson is not, is a gambler. It leaves Hart’s position as safe as houses. If only we could say the same about him.